Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020

Punter whacks huge £1million bet on US election as odds on a Trump win improve

One well-off punter has placed a whopping £1million on Joe Biden to beat Donald Trump in Tuesday's US election – the biggest political bet Betfair has ever received.

The Betfair Exchange confirmed the huge wager was placed over the weekend, with £1m placed on Biden to take the keys to the White House at odds of 8/15, which returns £1,540,000 if he boots Trump out of the Oval Office.

At the Betfair Exchange, £14million was place on Democrat Joe Biden over the weekend while £8m went on Republican Trump to hold onto the presidency.

Betfair claims political betting on the race for the White House is on course to hit £400million on the Exchange alone, while worldwide stakes look set to hit more than £1billion.

Trump’s odds have improved from 2/1 (33%) to 15/8 (35%) over the weekend, but Joe Biden remains the 8/15 (65%) favourite.

However, it's worth pointing out that Trump’s average odds one day before polls opened back in 2016, when he was the rank outsider, were 9/2 (18%) and he hit a high of 9/1 (10%), while Hillary Clinton’s chances were 1/5 (83%).

As we all know, Trump carried the election and was elected to the top job through the US Electoral College – although Hilary Clinton did win the popular vote.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Donald Trump’s odds have slightly improved this weekend to 15/8 but that has not deterred one punter from betting £1m on Joe Biden to win.

“The bet is the biggest political bet of all time on Betfair Exchange and returns a handsome £1,540,000 if Biden wins the keys to the White House.

“The 2016 US election’s record for being the biggest single betting event of all time was broken by this year’s contest last week and the £271m bet on the 2020 election means it remains on-course to hit £400m.”

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Professional political gambler and Betfair election expert Paul Krishnamurty said: “The big money is coming for Biden because people get more confident at the end of an election about the state of the market and the big hitters enter.

“A total of £400m bet is well within range and that represents a 12-fold increase in two election cycles and that has to be the Trump effect, he’s changed the game."

Betfair Exchange's figures appear to be bucking the UK-wide trend so far in the campaign, as a representative of fellow bookmakers Coral told the Daily Star Online last week that bets registered with them were favouring Trump at a rate of roughly 70%-30%.

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"We have already taken nearly twice as many bets as we did in 2016 and it will eclipse any of the recent UK General Elections by the time it’s over," Coral spokesman Harry Aitkenhead told the Daily Star Online.

"The interest is definitely huge from UK punters. It's hard to pinpoint one exact the reason for this, perhaps mostly just due to the world situation and how politically charged things are the moment, who knows…

"Trump is still the subject of about 70% of total bets from our punters, despite being the outsider in the market.

"This explains why the betting gives him a 38% chance, but the polls much less. So it means if Trump were to win, despite not being the favourite it would be a bad result for the bookies. "

Throughout this week, the Daily Star Online will be bringing you all the big news, and some of the quirkiest, from 2020's US election. You can read more of our coverage here.

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